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由国家信息中心(State Information Center)专家编写[1]的《中国与世界经济发展报告(2013)》发布。报告预测,本[2]物价[3]回落[4]趋势[5]将结束,2013年我国CPI将进入新一轮上涨阶段。2013年,CPI(Consumer Price Index)将上涨3%,PPI(Producer Price Index)将下降1%。

报告指出,2012年前三季度[6],食品[7]上涨幅度[8]最大为5.5%,居住价[9]格上涨幅度最小为0.2%,涨幅都低于去年同期。这表明2012年物价走回落态势。专家表示,粮食(grains)价格涨幅较低和猪肉(pork)价格下降是2012年物价回落的主要原因。

经济家[10]张前荣介绍,进入新世纪[11]以来,我国物价经历了四轮周期性[12]的反复波动[13]。根据前三轮波动中,回落阶段时间在一年左右,据此判断,本轮物价回落的趋势已经快结束了,CPI将进入新一轮上升阶段。

2013年初猪肉价格将进入周期性的上涨阶段。张前荣建议,为了防止2013年猪肉价格过快增长,应加大生猪疾病预防[14]工作力度。

The "report on the economic development of China and the world" compiled by experts of the State Information Center is published. The report predicts that the current trend of fall of commodity prices will end and that in 2013 China's CPI (Consumer Price Index) will enter another round of increase of prices. In 2013 the CPI will rise by 3% and PPI (Producer Price Index) will drop by 1%.

The report indicates that in the first three quarters of 2012 the rate of increase in food prices was 5.5% at most, will apartment prices rose by as little as 0.2%, which is a smaller increase compared to the similar period last year. This shows that in 2012 commodity prices entered a trend of falling after a rise. Experts say that small increase in prices of grains and drop in pork are the major reasons for this fall in 2012.

Economist Zhang Qianrong explains that since the beginning of the new century China's commodity prices have experienced four repeating cycles of fluctuations. According to the first three rounds of fluctuations, the 'fall after a rise' lasts about one year, which means that the current trend of 'fall' is about to end and the CPI shall enter a new round of increase.

Pork prices are about to enter a period of price increase in the beginning of 2013. Zhang Qianrong suggests that in order to prevent a drastic rise of pork prices in 2013, there is need to expand the prevention of pig illness.


[1] 编写 biānxiě - compile

[2] 轮 lún - round

[3] 物价 wùjià - commodity prices

[4] 回落 huí luò - fall after a rise

[5] 趋势 qūshì - tendency

[6] 季度 jìdù - quarter of a year

[7] 食品 shípǐn - food products

[8] 幅度 fúdù - scope

[9] 居住价 jūzhù jià - apartment prices

[10] 经济家 jīngjì jiā - economist

[11] 世纪 shìjì - century

[12] 周期性 zhōuqīxìng - cycle

[13] 反复波动 fǎnfù bōdòng - repetitive fluctuations

[14] 疾病预防 jíbìng yùfáng - illness prevention



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