央行[1]昨晚宣布，自2010年12月26日起上调人民币存贷款基准利率[2]，金融机构[3]一年期存贷款基准利率分别上调0.25个百分点。 上调后的一年期存贷款基准利率分别为2.75%和5.81%。这是央行年内第二次上调基准利率，此前，年内已6次上调存款准备金率[4]，目前金融机构存款准备金率（是指金融机构为保证客户提取存款和资金清算需要而准备的在中央银行的存款）处在18.5％的历史高位。
现在房价上行的趋势就像一个不断膨胀的气球，而加息相当于给气球放气，会降低房价继续上涨的压力。此前多次上调准备金率作用不是很大，明年房价下跌的可能性将会更大。
央行此前已数次上调存款准备金率，因此央行加息决定符合之前的预期。由于目前的通胀[5]水平依然很高，而且未来通胀的压力依旧存在，因此从抵御通胀的角度加息非常必要。本次加息主要是为抑制通胀，使货币政策逐渐向常态化回归。
货币政策转向稳健后，价格型工具的使用将会增加，明年上半年会继续加息1-2次，人民币汇率的弹性将进一步增大。明年存款准备金率可能至少调整4次，利率有两次的上调空间，但负利率的状态仍会维持。
Central Bank of China announced yesterday, that from December 26th and on, the standard interest rate for RMB loans will be increased. The national banking system will increase the preserved credit standard interest rate by 0.25 percentage points. After this increase, the one year Bank savings' reserve funds' rate will be 2.75% and 5.81%. This is the second time within one year that the Central Bank of China is increasing the standard interest rate. Before this, within this year, the Bank savings' reserve funds' rate has already been increased 6 times. At present, reserve funds' rate of financial institutions bank stands at 18.5%, a historical high position.
Nowadays, the trend of the increase in housing prices resembles an unceasingly inflated balloon, and the raise of interest rates is like releasing gas out of the balloon, possibly stopping the continuous growing pressure of housing prices. The increase in rate of reserve funds, which took place many times before, didn't have a big impact, therefore the possibility of declining housing prices next year could be more significant.
The Central Bank of China has already increased the rate of bank saving's reserve funds several times before, therefore the bank's decision of increasing interest rates is accord with prior expectations. Since the present inflation level is still high, and there is still pressure regarding future inflation, from the perspective of resisting inflation, raising interest rates is very necessary. The increase of interest rates this time is mainly in order to restrain inflation, making the money currency policies gradually regress to normal levels.
After the currency policies will reach a steady state, the application of methods to adjust prices could be expanded. In the first half of next year, the interest rate could continue to be increased (1-2 times), leading to a further amplification in the elasticity of the exchange rate of the RMB. Bank saving's reserve fund rate will be readjusted at least four times in the next year. There are two increase openings for interest rates, though a state of negative interest rates could be preserved.
[1] 央行 yāng hang - Short for 中央银行 zhōngyāngyínháng - Central Bank of China, the central financial institute of China.
[2] 人民币存贷款基准利率 rénmínbì cún dàikuǎn jīzhǔn lìlù - The standard interest rate for RMB loan.
[3] 金融机构 jīnróng jīgòu - The national banking system.
[4] 存款准备金率 cúnkuǎn zhǔnbèi jīn lù - Bank savings' reserve funds' rate.
[5] 通胀 tōng zhàng - Inflation.
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