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Home  /  Picture of the Day  /  Pic of the Day by Category  /  Economy 财经   /  经济学家预计人民币今年大约升值2% - Economists Estimate that the RMB will be Appreciated by 2% This Year
经济学家预计人民币今年大约升值2% - Economists Estimate that the RMB will be Appreciated by 2% This Year print version
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7月开始, 财新传媒[1]给了18位经济学家一份问卷。 在问卷中, 这些经济学家预计人民币对美元汇率[2]到2010年结束时将升值到6.6456, 这说明人民币的价值比现在会上升2.66%。

从6月19日人民币汇率形成机制改革[3]开始以后, 人民币的价值开始上升。 到7月9日, 人民币对美元汇率是6.7753, 三个星期中上升了0.76%。 学者认为, 中国外贸出口如果继续增长, 可能会给人民币升值带来更大的动力。

7月10日, 海关[4]总署[5]公布, 中国6月出口值和进出口总值[6]超过了2008年7月的纪录, 创造了新的历史记录。 6月进出口值是2547.7亿美元, 增长了39.2%, 其中出口1374亿美元, 增长率43.9%; 进口1173.3亿美元, 增长了34.1% 。

上半年, 中国进出口快速增长。 海关总署有关官员说, 中国进出口的增长说明中国外贸已经恢复到金融危机[7]之前的水平。

因为欧洲债务危机[8], 很多人担心中国出口可能出现快速下降。 在人民币重新升值以后, 这种担心更加明显。

7月8日, 美国财政部[9]向国会上交了《国际经济政策和汇率报告[10]》。 报告不认为中国操纵汇率, 但认为人民币的价值还是被低估了。美国财长盖特纳说, "重要的是人民币上升价值的大小和上升的速度。我们将密切而且定期地跟踪人民币的升值情况......"

现在, 中国经济正出现增长变慢的迹象。 下半年中国出口是否能够保持快速增长, 仍不清楚。

In beginning of July, Caixin Media has given a questionnaire to 18 economists. In this questionnaire the economists have estimated that by the end of 2010 the RMB to US Dollar exchange rate will reach 6.6456:1, in other words, the RMB value will rise by 2.66% compared to its current worth.

After the reform in the mmm on June 19th, the value of the RMB began to rise. By July 9th the RMB to US Dollar exchange rate was 6.7753:1, meaning that within three weeks the former's value had rose by 0.76%. Economists believe that if China's foreign export trade continues to grow, then the RMB value increase could be empowered.

July 10th, the customs main office published that the gross value of China's import and export in June have exceeded the record of July 2008, producing a new all time record. The total value of import and export in June was 254770 million US Dollars, an increase of 39.2%, among which export value was $137400 million, an increase of 43.9% and import value was $117330 million, an increase of 34.1%.

In the last six months, China's imports and exports have grown rapidly. China's Customs' head office official said that the growth in China's imports and exports demonstrates that China's foreign trade had fully recovered, and reaches the levels experienced prior to the financial crisis.

Due to the liabilities crisis in Europe, many people were concerned that China's exports would be rapidly decreased. In the light of the new appreciation of the RMB, this concern is even more evident.

On July 8th, US Ministry of Finance addressed the parliament in the matter of 'Report on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies'. The report doesn't suppose that China controls exchange rates, though it believes that the RMB value is underestimated. The US Secretary of Treasury Timothy F. Geithner said "what is most important is by the RMB will rise and how fast it will be. We shall follow the revaluation of the RMB closely and regularly."

Meanwhile, there are signs of a slow growth in China's economy. It is still not clear whether China's export in the next six months is able to maintain a high-speed growth.


[1]财新传媒 (cáixīn chuánméi) - Caixin Media, a media agency which supplies finance related information and news. For more see here(

[2] 汇率 (huìlù) - Exchange rate

[3] 人民币汇率形成机制改革 (rénmínbì huìlù xíngchéng jīzhì gǎigé) A reform initiated on June 19th  by the Bank of China, aiming to increase the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate.

[4] 海关 (hǎiguān) - Customs (literal meaning is 'sea pass')

[5] 总署 (zǒngshǔ) - Head office (总 = Chief, head, 署 = Government office)

[6] 进出口总值 (jìnchūkǒu zǒngzhí) - 进口=import, 出口=export, 进出口总值 = Gross import-export value.

[7] 金融危机 (jīnróng wēijī) - Financial crisis. The word 金融 literal meaning is 'metal melting'. Nowadays it means 'finance'.

[8] 债务危机 (zhàiwù wēijī) - Liabilities or debt crisis, such as the crisis recently experienced in Europe.

[9] 财政部 (cáizhèngbù) - Ministry of Finance

[10]国际经济政策和汇率报告 (guójì jīngjì zhèngcè hé huìlù bàogào) - 'Report on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies', here referring to a report provided by The US Treasury Department.

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